FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Le Havre AC 1–2 BrestMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Le Havre AC at 39%, draw at 27%, Brest at 34%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Le Havre AC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
AC win
39%
Draw
27%
Brest win
34%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.41 – 1.29
Total 2.69
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 50%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Le Havre's home advantage edges a tight xG race (1.41 vs 1.29), making Over 1.5 Goals the model's 75%-confidence call in a fixture projected for 2.69 total shots on target."