What we expect
In plain English
Montenegro are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. Latvia have not beaten them in their last four meetings. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
Montenegro or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Latvia vs Montenegro?
Bawler's model rates this match: Montenegro are favoured (40% win probability vs 37% for Latvia, 23% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Latvia vs Montenegro?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Latvia 1-1 Montenegro (9.6% probability). Expected total goals: 3.54.
How does Bawler predict Latvia vs Montenegro?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Latvia 37%, the draw 23% and Montenegro 40%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Latvia vs Montenegro?
BTTS: Yes (69% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.74 and away expected goals 1.80.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Latvia vs Montenegro?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.54. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).