What we expect
In plain English
Jordan are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Venezuela. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
Jordan or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Jordan vs Venezuela?
Bawler's model rates this match: Jordan are favoured (49% win probability vs 27% for Venezuela, 24% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Jordan vs Venezuela?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Jordan 1-1 Venezuela (10.5% probability). Expected total goals: 3.26.
How does Bawler predict Jordan vs Venezuela?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Jordan 49%, the draw 24% and Venezuela 27%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Jordan vs Venezuela?
BTTS: Yes (63% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.89 and away expected goals 1.37.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Jordan vs Venezuela?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.26. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).