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Russia vs Venezuela prediction — International friendlies · Tue 17 Nov · 17:00 UK

International friendlies · Tue 17 Nov · 17:00 UK
VersusVenezuelaVenezuela
62Russia win23Draw15Venezuela win
The call
62%
Russia to win
Likeliest score
1–0
13% — the single most likely result
Expected goals
1.9v0.8
2.7 in total
Both teams score
46%
Leans no
3+ goals
50%
Coin flip

What we expect from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

RussiaRussiaVenezuelaVenezuela
1.9Goals0.8
usually 2.8usually 0.7
11.7Shots9.2
usually 16.5usually 11.7
5.1On target3.6
usually 7.0usually 4.7
3.9Corners3.8
usually 6.7usually 4.7
RussiaRussiaVenezuelaVenezuela
0.8Goals0.4
5.3Shots4.2
usually 7.5usually 4.3
2.3On target1.6
usually 3.3usually 1.7
1.8Corners1.8
usually 3.3usually 2.3
RussiaRussiaVenezuelaVenezuela
1.0Goals0.4
6.3Shots5.0
2.8On target2.0
2.1Corners2.0

More chances

Russia to score85%
2 or more goals75%
3 goals or fewer72%
Goal before half-time69%

Russia · last 6

Dv Nigeria3–317 shots
Wv Namibia6–024 shots
Wv Iran2–012 shots
Wv Trinidad and Tobago3–021 shots
Wv Burkina Faso3–017 shots
Lat Egypt0–18 shots

Venezuela · last 6

Dat Jordan0–010/06
Dat South Korea0–012 shots
Lat Japan1–29 shots
Wv Iraq2–006/10
Lv Turkiye1–216 shots
Dat Uzbekistan0–06 shots

First half — what we expect

Russia
56%
to score before half-time
Venezuela
30%
to score before half-time

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.

RussiaRussiaVenezuelaVenezuela
71%4+ shots55%
43%6+ shots27%
87%1+ shots on target75%
39%3+ shots on target23%
79%1+ corners78%
29%3+ corners27%

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

What would change the call

Russia to win is 62% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:

Russia lead 1–0 at half-time84%
Venezuela lead 1–0 at half-time17%
Goalless at half-time47%

Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.

Build a combination on this match →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Russia form →Venezuela form →

Common questions

Who will win Russia vs Venezuela?

Bawler's model rates this match: Russia are favoured (62% win probability vs 15% for Venezuela, 23% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Russia vs Venezuela?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Russia 1-0 Venezuela (12.8% probability). Expected total goals: 2.7.

How does Bawler predict Russia vs Venezuela?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Russia 62%, the draw 23% and Venezuela 15%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Russia vs Venezuela?

Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 46% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Russia expecting 1.87 goals and Venezuela 0.80.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Russia vs Venezuela?

Bawler's model expects 2.7 goals in total. Three or more goals is a coin flip: over 2.5 goals is 50%.