FT · World: International Friendly · Thursday, 01 October 2026

Maldives 0–6 LebanonMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 01 October 2026

Maldives
0–6
Lebanon win
Lebanon

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Lebanon to win at 75%. Bawler had Maldives at 7%, the draw at 17% and Lebanon at 75%. The match finished 0–6.

Pre-match probability vs result

Maldives win
7%
Draw
17%
Lebanon win
75%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
0.6 – 2.2
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 6
Total 6 (+3.2 against our forecast)

The match produced 3.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Lebanon to win
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Lebanon's away win sits at 69% forecast probability, built on a decisive 1.42 expected-goals edge that reflects superior attacking threat in this friendly."

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