Iraq v Iran prediction
Our model gives Iraq 18%, the draw 26% and Iran 56%, so Iran start as favourites. Our predicted score is Iraq 0–1 Iran, at 14%. Our expected goals are 0.8 for Iraq and 1.6 for Iran, 2.5 in all. Both teams scoring is only 45% and three or more goals comes in at 45%.
On shots, our forecast is 11.2 for Iraq and 11.4 for Iran, with 2.8 and 3.5 on target, and corners at 4.1 to 4.8.
Iraq have one win, one draw and four defeats from their last six games, and lost the most recent.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties.
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Iraq · last 6
Iran · last 6
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Iran or draw is 82% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Common questions
Who will win Iraq vs Iran?
Bawler's model rates this match: Iran are favoured (56% win probability vs 18% for Iraq, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Iraq vs Iran?
Bawler's predicted score is Iraq 0-1 Iran: the most likely score if Iran win, which is the likeliest result (56%). Our model puts that exact score at 13.9%. Expected total goals: 2.5.
How does Bawler predict Iraq vs Iran?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Iraq 18%, the draw 26% and Iran 56%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Iraq vs Iran?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 45% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Iraq expecting 0.81 goals and Iran 1.65.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Iraq vs Iran?
Bawler's model expects 2.5 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 45%.
When are the Iraq v Iran line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.