Match prediction·Europe: Conference League - Qualification·Thursday 06 Aug, 19:00 UTC

Hibernian vs KF Shkëndija

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Under 2.5 Goals dominates at 85% probability because Shkëndija's 0.52 xG trails Hibernian's 0.89 by 0.37, signalling a low-volume attacking matchup.

📊 Win probability
70.9% home21.3% draw7.8% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
HibernianstepKF Shkëndija
1.96Base xG · rolling 26-match0.67
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.21Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.63

Hibernian average 5.7 corners per game at home this season (21 competitive matches). KF Shkendija average 3.6 corners per game away from home this season (5 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
4
1
1
13
8
3
1
2
14
9
3
1
3
10
7
2
4
6
4
1
5
3
2
1
6
1
1
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Hibernian to win
87%
Under 2.5 goals
51%
Over 3.5 goals
23%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Hibernian vs KF Shkëndija — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Hibernian and KF Shkëndija — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Hibernian 71% · draw 21% · KF Shkëndija 8%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Hibernian 21 KF Shkëndija
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.