FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 06 August 2026
Hibernian 2–1 KF ShkëndijaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 06 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Hibernian at 71%, draw at 21%, KF Shkëndija at 8%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Hibernian.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Hibernian win
71%
Actual ✓
Draw
21%
Shkëndija win
8%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.21 – 0.63
Total 2.84
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 87%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Under 2.5 Goals dominates at 85% probability because Shkëndija's 0.52 xG trails Hibernian's 0.89 by 0.37, signalling a low-volume attacking matchup."