What we expect
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Gibraltar vs Sao Tome and Principe?
Bawler's model rates this match: Gibraltar are favoured (52% win probability vs 24% for Sao Tome and Principe, 24% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Gibraltar vs Sao Tome and Principe?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Gibraltar 1-1 Sao Tome and Principe (11.0% probability). Expected total goals: 3.09.
How does Bawler predict Gibraltar vs Sao Tome and Principe?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Gibraltar 52%, the draw 24% and Sao Tome and Principe 24%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Gibraltar vs Sao Tome and Principe?
BTTS: Yes (59% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.88 and away expected goals 1.21.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Gibraltar vs Sao Tome and Principe?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.09. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).