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Bawler / Gibraltar vs Andorra / Recap
FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Gibraltar 0–0 AndorraMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Gibraltar
0–0
Draw
Andorra
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Gibraltar at 42%, draw at 28%, Andorra at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Gibraltar to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Gibraltar win
42%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
Andorra win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.44 – 1.18
Total 2.62
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.6 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 2.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals ranks as the high-confidence forecast at 76% because Gibraltar's 1.58 xG combined with Andorra's 1.17 creates a 0.41 gap that favors an open attacking contest."

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