Gibraltar 0–0 Sao Tome and PrincipeMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 23 September 2026

0–0

Draw

Sao Tome and Principe

> 🧠 Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Gibraltar at 51%, draw at 24%, Sao Tome and Principe at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Gibraltar to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Gibraltar win

51%

Draw

24%

Actual ✓

Principe win

25%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.88 – 1.27

Total 3.15

Actual

0 – 0

Total 0 (-3.1 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 3.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 82%

✗ Lost

Medium confidence

Home Win

Pre-match: 51%

✗ Lost

Outside shot

Over 3.5 Goals

Pre-match: 39%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call, backed by Gibraltar's 1.88 xG advantage and a combined expected-goals total of 3.15 that suggests multiple scoring chances for both sides."

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