FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Fenerbahce 1–2 BesiktasMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Fenerbahce at 55%, draw at 23%, Besiktas at 22%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Fenerbahce to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Fenerbahce win
55%
Draw
23%
Besiktas win
22%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.92 – 1.14
Total 3.06
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (-0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 81%, backed by Fenerbahce's 0.79 expected-goal advantage and superior attacking profile in a fixture where both sides project 3.06 combined xG."