Faroe Islands vs Kazakhstan prediction — UEFA Nations League · Sat 26 Sept · 17:00 UK

UEFA Nations League · Sat 26 Sept · 17:00 UK
Faroe Islands 60Draw 24Kazakhstan 16
The call
84%
Faroe Islands or draw
2.6
Goals expected
11d 17hUntil lineups lock

What we expect

Faroe Islands to score83%
Under 3.5 goals74%
Over 1.5 goals73%

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)+1.0 / match
Head-to-head, last 5FAR 1 · D 1 · KAZ 1

Head to head

Nov 2025Faroe Islands 1–0 Kazakhstan
Oct 2013Faroe Islands 1–1 Kazakhstan
Sept 2013Kazakhstan 2–1 Faroe Islands
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Common questions

Who will win Faroe Islands vs Kazakhstan?

Bawler's model rates this match: Faroe Islands are favoured (60% win probability vs 16% for Kazakhstan, 24% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Faroe Islands vs Kazakhstan?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Faroe Islands 1-0 Kazakhstan (13.2% probability). Expected total goals: 2.59.

How does Bawler predict Faroe Islands vs Kazakhstan?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Faroe Islands 60%, the draw 24% and Kazakhstan 16%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Faroe Islands vs Kazakhstan?

BTTS: No (54% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 1.78 and away expected goals 0.81.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Faroe Islands vs Kazakhstan?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.59. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).