What we expect
In plain English
Cyprus should get at least a draw here. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Latvia. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
Cyprus or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Cyprus vs Latvia?
Bawler's model rates this match: Cyprus are favoured (59% win probability vs 20% for Latvia, 21% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Cyprus vs Latvia?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Cyprus 2-1 Latvia (9.5% probability). Expected total goals: 3.45.
How does Bawler predict Cyprus vs Latvia?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Cyprus 59%, the draw 21% and Latvia 20%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Cyprus vs Latvia?
BTTS: Yes (63% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.21 and away expected goals 1.24.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Cyprus vs Latvia?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.45. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).