Croatia should get at least a draw here. They have lost four of their last six, the model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Czechia, and Czechia have not beaten them in their last five meetings. The model sees around three goals in it.
The chances
What we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
Each bar is split by each side's share of the total.
What would change the call
Croatia or draw is 80% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Each row is the call worked out again for that half-time score. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Croatia · last 6
Czechia · last 6
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Croatia vs Czechia?
Bawler's model rates this match: Croatia are favoured (57% win probability vs 20% for Czechia, 23% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Croatia vs Czechia?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Croatia 1-1 Czechia (10.7% probability). Expected total goals: 3.1.
How does Bawler predict Croatia vs Czechia?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Croatia 57%, the draw 23% and Czechia 20%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Croatia vs Czechia?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 57% chance. That is based on Croatia expecting 1.96 goals and Czechia 1.10.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Croatia vs Czechia?
Bawler's model expects 3.1 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 59%.