FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Cambridge United 0–1 MillwallMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Cambridge United at 35%, draw at 27%, Millwall at 38%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Millwall.
> Pre-match probability vs result
United win
35%
Draw
27%
Millwall win
38%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.38 – 1.43
Total 2.81
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost