FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Blackburn Rovers 2–1 MiddlesbroughMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Blackburn Rovers at 28%, draw at 29%, Middlesbrough at 43%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-1. The model's headline call was Middlesbrough to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rovers win
28%
Actual ✓
Draw
29%
Middlesbrough win
43%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.05 – 1.38
Total 2.42
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.6 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 72%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost