What we expect
In plain English
Belgium should win this one. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Türkiye, and Türkiye have won two of the last three between them. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
Belgium to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Belgium vs Türkiye?
Bawler's model rates this match: Belgium are favoured (78% win probability vs 8% for Türkiye, 14% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Belgium vs Türkiye?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Belgium 2-0 Türkiye (10.4% probability). Expected total goals: 3.64.
How does Bawler predict Belgium vs Türkiye?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Belgium 78%, the draw 14% and Türkiye 8%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Belgium vs Türkiye?
BTTS: Yes (53% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.82 and away expected goals 0.82.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Belgium vs Türkiye?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.64. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).