Match prediction·EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification·Thursday 06 Aug, 17:30 UTC

Beitar Jerusalem vs Austria Vienna

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
40.0% home28.0% draw32.0% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Beitar JerusalemstepAustria Vienna
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Austria Vienna average 2.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Beitar Jerusalem or Draw
68%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Beitar Jerusalem Win
40%
Draw
28%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Beitar Jerusalem vs Austria Vienna — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Beitar Jerusalem and Austria Vienna — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Beitar Jerusalem 40% · draw 28% · Austria Vienna 32%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Beitar Jerusalem 12 Austria Vienna
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.