FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Atlético Madrid 1–0 DeportivoMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Atlético Madrid to win at 62%. Bawler had Atlético Madrid at 62%, the draw at 22% and Deportivo at 16%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Atlético Madrid win
62%
Result
Draw
22%
Deportivo win
16%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.0
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.1 against our forecast)
The match produced 2.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Atlético Madrid to win
Pre-match: 62%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 55%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Atlético Madrid's home win is the model's high-confidence call at 63%, underpinned by a dominant 1.14 xG advantage and Griezmann's creative influence generating a quarter of their attacking threat."