FT · Spain: Copa del Rey · Thursday, 29 October 2026

CD Varea 0–3 FC AndorraMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 29 October 2026

CD Varea
0–3
FC Andorra win
FC Andorra

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was CD Varea or draw at 77%. Bawler had CD Varea at 52%, the draw at 25% and FC Andorra at 23%. The match finished 0–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

CD Varea win
52%
Draw
25%
FC Andorra win
23%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.8 – 1.1
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.0 against our forecast)

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 3.0.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
CD Varea to win
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"FC Andorra's 0.65 expected-goals advantage and 52% win probability make FC Andorra or draw the model's high-confidence call at 77%."

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