How it finished
Al Riyadh beat Neom SC 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Neom SC at 43% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Al Riyadh 31%. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 1 was scored. Al Riyadh had 10 shots (3 on target) to Neom SC's 12 (3), with 33% of the ball against 67%. On expected goals it was 0.8 to 0.9, so Neom SC created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 73%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Al Riyadh vs Neom SC?
Al Riyadh beat Neom SC 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Neom SC at 43% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Al Riyadh 31%. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 1 was scored. Al Riyadh had 10 shots (3 on target) to Neom SC's 12 (3), with 33% of the ball against 67%. On expected goals it was 0.8 to 0.9, so Neom SC created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Neom SC?
Al Riyadh 1–0 Neom SC, played on 28 Aug 2026 in the SAUDI ARABIA: Saudi Pro League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Al Riyadh 31%, the draw 26% and Neom SC 43%.
What were the stats in Al Riyadh vs Neom SC?
Full-time: Possession 33%–67%, Expected goals (xG) 0.8–0.9, Shots 10–12, Shots on target 3–3, Shots inside box 7–8, Big chances 1–0, Corners 5–5, Saves 3–2, Fouls 13–9, Offsides 2–0, Yellow cards 3–1.
Did both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Neom SC?
No. It finished 1–0, so Neom SC failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Al Riyadh vs Neom SC right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Neom SC or draw 69%, it finished Al Riyadh won (31% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 58%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 79%, it finished Missed.