Pre-match, Bawler had Al Riyadh at 31%, draw at 26%, Neom SC at 43%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-0. The model's headline call was Neom SC to win.
Match underperformed xG by 1.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.