FT · SAUDI ARABIA: Saudi Pro League · Friday, 28 August 2026

Al Riyadh 1–0 Neom SCMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 28 August 2026

Al Riyadh
1–0
Al Riyadh win
Neom SC

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Neom SC or draw at 69%. Bawler had Al Riyadh at 31%, the draw at 26% and Neom SC at 43%. The match finished 1–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Riyadh win
31%
Result
Draw
26%
Neom SC win
43%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.3 – 1.6
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 0.9
From the match itself

The match produced 1.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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