Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelAn open game: both sides to score, with Cristiano Ronaldo and Julián Quiñones both getting shots away.
Al Nassr v Al Qadsiah prediction
Al Nassr are favourites on our numbers: 46% to win, against 30% for Al Qadsiah and 24% for a draw. Our predicted score is Al Nassr 2–1 Al Qadsiah: the most likely score if Al Nassr win, at 9%. Al Nassr are expected to score 1.9 goals and Al Qadsiah 1.5, 3.3 between them. Both sides are more likely than not to score (65%) and three or more goals is 65%.
In their last six games Al Nassr have five wins, one draw and no defeats, while Al Qadsiah have four wins, one draw and one defeat. Both won their most recent match. Samú of Al Nassr is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27.
We expect Al Nassr to have 15.9 shots (5.7 on target) and Al Qadsiah 10.4 (3.6 on target), and corners at 5.0 to 4.0. That points to Al Nassr doing more of the attacking. Of their last five meetings on our records, Al Nassr have won none, Al Qadsiah five. The last meeting ended Al Qadsiah 3–1 Al Nassr FC, in May 2026. Bawler's pick combines Both Teams to Score, Over 21.5 Total Shots, Cristiano Ronaldo 1+ Shot and Julián Quiñones 1+ Shot. We make the chance of all four coming in 56%, a fair price of 4/5 (1.80).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Al Nassr · last 6
Al Qadsiah · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Al Nassr or draw is 70% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Saudi Pro League table →Common questions
Who will win Al Nassr vs Al Qadsiah?
Bawler's model rates this match: Al Nassr are favoured (46% win probability vs 30% for Al Qadsiah, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Al Nassr vs Al Qadsiah?
Bawler's predicted score is Al Nassr 2-1 Al Qadsiah: the most likely score if Al Nassr win, which is the likeliest result (46%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.0%. Expected total goals: 3.3.
How does Bawler predict Al Nassr vs Al Qadsiah?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Al Nassr 46%, the draw 24% and Al Qadsiah 30%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Al Nassr vs Al Qadsiah?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 65% chance. That is based on Al Nassr expecting 1.85 goals and Al Qadsiah 1.48.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Al Nassr vs Al Qadsiah?
Bawler's model expects 3.3 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 65%.
When are the Al Nassr v Al Qadsiah line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Al Nassr v Al Qadsiah?
Both Teams to Score (65%), Over 21.5 Total Shots (80%), Cristiano Ronaldo 1+ Shot (95%), Julián Quiñones 1+ Shot (89%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 56% chance, a fair price of 4/5 (1.80). 18+, please gamble responsibly.