How it finished
Al Kholood beat Al Ahli 3–1. Bawler's model favoured Al Ahli at 63% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Al Kholood 14%. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 4. Al Kholood had 4 shots (3 on target) to Al Ahli's 15 (3), with 31% of the ball against 69%. On expected goals it was 1.1 to 1.4, so Al Ahli created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 79%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Al Kholood vs Al Ahli?
Al Kholood beat Al Ahli 3–1. Bawler's model favoured Al Ahli at 63% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Al Kholood 14%. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 4. Al Kholood had 4 shots (3 on target) to Al Ahli's 15 (3), with 31% of the ball against 69%. On expected goals it was 1.1 to 1.4, so Al Ahli created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Al Ahli?
Al Kholood 3–1 Al Ahli, played on 29 Aug 2026 in the Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Al Kholood 14%, the draw 22% and Al Ahli 63%.
What were the stats in Al Kholood vs Al Ahli?
Full-time: Possession 31%–69%, Expected goals (xG) 1.1–1.4, Shots 4–15, Shots on target 3–3, Shots inside box 3–11, Big chances 1–2, Corners 1–4, Saves 2–0, Fouls 17–10, Offsides 4–1, Yellow cards 2–1.
Did both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al Ahli?
Yes — both Al Kholood and Al Ahli scored, finishing 3–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 48% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Al Kholood vs Al Ahli right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Al Ahli to win 63%, it finished Al Kholood won (14% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 48%, it finished Yes; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 52%, it finished Landed.