FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Saturday, 29 August 2026

Al Kholood 3–1 Al AhliMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026

Al Kholood
3–1
Al Kholood win
Al Ahli

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Al Ahli to win at 63%. Bawler had Al Kholood at 14%, the draw at 22% and Al Ahli at 63%. The match finished 3–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Kholood win
14%
Result
Draw
22%
Al Ahli win
63%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
0.8 – 1.9
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 1.4
From the match itself

The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Al Ahli to win
Pre-match: 63%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Al Ahli's away win is the model's high-confidence call at 64%, underpinned by a decisive 1.14 xG advantage that reflects superior attacking threat across the match."

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