FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Wednesday, 26 August 2026

Al Diriyah 1–1 Al KholoodMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 26 August 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Kholood or draw at 82%. Bawler had Al Diriyah at 18%, the draw at 23% and Al Kholood at 59%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Diriyah win
18%
Draw
23%
Result
Al Kholood win
59%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.0 – 1.9
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 1.4
From the match itself

The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Al Kholood or draw
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Al Kholood's away win is the high-confidence call, built on a commanding 1.69 expected-goals advantage and 74% win probability against a home side generating just 0.76 xG."

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