Pre-match, Bawler had Al Diriyah at 18%, draw at 23%, Al Kholood at 59%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Al Kholood to win.
Match underperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.