Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelAl Hilal on top: Ollie Watkins to test the keeper, and Enzo Millot kept busy stopping them.
Al Hilal v Al Diriyah prediction
Our model makes Al Hilal clear favourites for this Saudi Pro League game, with a 78% chance of winning. Al Diriyah are given 7%, and the draw 15%. Our predicted score is Al Hilal 2–0 Al Diriyah, at 12%. Our expected goals are 2.6 for Al Hilal and 0.7 for Al Diriyah, 3.3 in all. There is a 47% chance both sides score and three or more goals is 65%.
On form, Al Hilal have five wins, no draws and one defeat from their last six games, and Al Diriyah have one win, two draws and three defeats. Rúben Neves of Al Hilal is the most booked player in either squad, once every 3 games in 2026/27.
We expect Al Hilal to have 19.0 shots (6.8 on target) and Al Diriyah 8.7 (2.4 on target), and corners at 7.6 to 3.3. That points to Al Hilal doing more of the attacking. Bawler's pick combines Al Hilal or Draw, Enzo Millot 1+ Foul Committed and Ollie Watkins 1+ Shot on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 52%, a fair price of 10/11 (1.92).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Al Hilal · last 6
Al Diriyah · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Al Hilal to win is 78% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Saudi Pro League table →Common questions
Who will win Al Hilal vs Al Diriyah?
Bawler's model rates this match: Al Hilal are favoured (78% win probability vs 7% for Al Diriyah, 15% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Al Hilal vs Al Diriyah?
Bawler's predicted score is Al Hilal 2-0 Al Diriyah: the most likely score if Al Hilal win, which is the likeliest result (78%). Our model puts that exact score at 12.3%. Expected total goals: 3.3.
How does Bawler predict Al Hilal vs Al Diriyah?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Al Hilal 78%, the draw 15% and Al Diriyah 7%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Al Hilal vs Al Diriyah?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 47% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Al Hilal expecting 2.63 goals and Al Diriyah 0.70.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Al Hilal vs Al Diriyah?
Bawler's model expects 3.3 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 65%.
When are the Al Hilal v Al Diriyah line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Al Hilal v Al Diriyah?
Al Hilal or Draw (93%), Enzo Millot 1+ Foul Committed (75%), Ollie Watkins 1+ Shot on Target (68%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 52% chance, a fair price of 10/11 (1.92). 18+, please gamble responsibly.