FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Wrexham 1–1 WatfordMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Wrexham or draw at 70%. Bawler had Wrexham at 42%, the draw at 28% and Watford at 30%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Wrexham win
42%
Draw
28%
Result
Watford win
30%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.1
Total 2.6
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.6 of our 2.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.