Viktoria Plzen 5–1 Red Star BelgradeMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 27 August 2026

5–1

Viktoria Plzen win

Red Star Belgrade

> 🧠 Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Viktoria Plzen at 42%, draw at 28%, Red Star Belgrade at 30%. The match ended 5-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Viktoria Plzen.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Plzen win

42%

Actual ✓

Draw

28%

Belgrade win

30%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.41 – 1.15

Total 2.55

Actual

5 – 1

Total 6 (+3.4 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 3.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 72%

✓ Won

Medium confidence

Under 2.5 Goals

Pre-match: 53%

✗ Lost

Outside shot

Draw

Pre-match: 28%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Plzen's 1.41 expected goals edge and 12-point win-probability advantage drive a high-confidence Over 1.5 Goals forecast at 72%, signaling both sides will find the net in a close Europa League qualifier."

> More from Bawler