FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026

Vikingur Reykjavik 13 Borac Banja LukaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026

Vikingur Reykjavik
13
Borac Banja Luka win
Borac Banja Luka
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Vikingur Reykjavik at 50%, draw at 25%, Borac Banja Luka at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-3. The model's headline call was Vikingur Reykjavik to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Reykjavik win
50%
Draw
25%
Luka win
25%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.701.13
Total 2.83
Actual
13
Total 4 (+1.2 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Away Win
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won

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