FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Vikingur Reykjavik 1–3 Borac Banja LukaMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Vikingur Reykjavik or draw at 75%. Bawler had Vikingur Reykjavik at 50%, the draw at 25% and Borac Banja Luka at 25%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Vikingur Reykjavik win
50%
Draw
25%
Borac Banja Luka win
25%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.1
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.2 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Borac Banja Luka to win
Pre-match: 25%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.