FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Valencia 0–1 Real BetisMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Valencia at 42%, draw at 27%, Real Betis at 31%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Valencia to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Valencia win
42%
Draw
27%
Betis win
31%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.47 – 1.22
Total 2.69
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 50%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost