FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Valencia 0–1 Real BetisMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Valencia or draw at 69%. Bawler had Valencia at 42%, the draw at 27% and Real Betis at 31%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Valencia win
42%
Draw
27%
Real Betis win
31%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.2
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 50%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.