FT · EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Trabzonspor 0–1 FerencvarosMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Trabzonspor at 34%, draw at 28%, Ferencvaros at 38%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Ferencvaros.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Trabzonspor win
34%
Draw
28%
Ferencvaros win
38%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.28 – 1.36
Total 2.63
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost