FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Strasbourg 1–3 Paris Saint-GermainMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Paris Saint-Germain or draw at 78%. Bawler had Strasbourg at 22%, the draw at 22% and Paris Saint-Germain at 56%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Strasbourg win
22%
Draw
22%
Paris Saint-Germain win
56%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 2.1
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 2.6
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.