FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Standard Liege 1–0 AntwerpMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Standard Liege at 39%, draw at 26%, Antwerp at 34%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Standard Liege.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Liege win
39%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Antwerp win
34%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.48 – 1.37
Total 2.86
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 78% because both sides generate similar attacking threat (Standard 1.48 xG, Antwerp 1.37), leaving neither defense commanding enough to suppress a multi-goal result."