FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 05 September 2026
St Mirren 1–2 CelticMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had St Mirren at 17%, draw at 24%, Celtic at 59%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Celtic.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Mirren win
17%
Draw
24%
Celtic win
59%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.92 – 1.87
Total 2.80
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 31%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Celtic's dominance in expected goals (1.88 to 0.92) underpins the X2 forecast, with the model projecting a 59% win probability that makes the draw-or-away-win outcome a high-confidence 83% call."