BAWLER
Bawler / SK Brann vs PAOK / Recap
FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026

SK Brann 3–2 PAOKMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 27 August 2026

SK Brann
3–2
SK Brann win
PAOK
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had SK Brann at 42%, draw at 26%, PAOK at 33%. The match ended 3-2 — confirming the model's lean toward SK Brann.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Brann win
42%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
PAOK win
33%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.60 – 1.40
Total 3.00
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.0 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 80%, grounded in a combined 3.00 expected goals and SK Brann's 9-point edge in win probability that suggests attacking intent from the home side."

> More from Bawler