FT · EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Sabah FK 5–2 Hapoel Be'erMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Sabah FK at 42%, draw at 25%, Hapoel Be'er at 33%. The match ended 5-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Sabah FK.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FK win
42%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Be'er win
33%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.63 – 1.43
Total 3.06
Actual
5 – 2
Total 7 (+3.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 3.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost