FT · World: International Friendly · Monday, 05 October 2026

Rwanda 0–0 KenyaMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 05 October 2026

Rwanda
0–0
Draw
Kenya

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Rwanda to win at 74%. Bawler had Rwanda at 74%, the draw at 17% and Kenya at 8%. The match finished 0–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Rwanda win
74%
Draw
17%
Result
Kenya win
8%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.4 – 0.7
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.0 against our forecast)

The match produced 3.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Rwanda to win
Pre-match: 74%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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