What we expect · full match
Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
How to read this
The small bars under each number are that side’s most recent matches (up to six), home and away, against opponents of mixed strength, oldest on the left; the dashed line is the number we expect. Our forecast is for this opponent at this ground, so a favourite’s recent numbers often sit below it and an underdog’s above it.
Recent averages · last 6 matches
What each side has actually done lately, home and away — a record, not a forecast.
What we expect
In plain English
Rwanda are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Kenya. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Rwanda to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Rwanda · last 6
Kenya · last 6
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 74%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Rwanda vs Kenya?
Bawler's model rates this match: Rwanda are favoured (74% win probability vs 9% for Kenya, 17% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Rwanda vs Kenya?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Rwanda 2-0 Kenya (13.3% probability). Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Rwanda vs Kenya?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Rwanda 74%, the draw 17% and Kenya 9%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Rwanda vs Kenya?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 45% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Rwanda expecting 2.34 goals and Kenya 0.68.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Rwanda vs Kenya?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 58%.