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Bawler / Ribadesella vs SD Noja / Recap
FT · Spain: Copa del Rey · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Ribadesella 1–0 SD NojaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Ribadesella
1–0
Ribadesella win
SD Noja
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Ribadesella at 45%, draw at 26%, SD Noja at 30%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Ribadesella.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Ribadesella win
45%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Noja win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.65 – 1.32
Total 2.96
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-2.0 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Ribadesella's 0.33 expected-goals advantage and 45% win probability underpin a high-confidence Over 1.5 Goals forecast at 80%, with both sides combining for 2.97 xG."

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