FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Raków Czestochowa 2–3 Hajduk SplitMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 27 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Raków Czestochowa at 44%, draw at 25%, Hajduk Split at 31%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-3. The model's headline call was Raków Czestochowa to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Czestochowa win
44%
Draw
25%
Split win
31%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.68 – 1.38
Total 3.06
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 81% confidence, underpinned by a combined xG of 3.06 and Raków's 1.68 expected output at home."