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Qatar vs South Korea prediction — International friendlies · Tue 17 Nov · 14:00 UK

International friendlies · Tue 17 Nov · 14:00 UK
12Qatar win23Draw65South Korea win
The call
65%
South Korea to win
Likeliest score
0–1
16% — the single most likely result
Expected goals
0.6v1.8
2.4 in total
Both teams score
39%
No
3+ goals
44%
Leans unlikely

What we expect from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

QatarQatarSouth KoreaSouth Korea
0.6Goals1.8
usually 0.8usually 1.0
7.6Shots13.6
usually 8.2usually 9.8
2.5On target5.1
usually 2.8usually 4.3
3.1Corners6.0
usually 3.0usually 3.7
QatarQatarSouth KoreaSouth Korea
0.3Goals0.8
3.5Shots6.2
usually 3.8usually 3.0
1.1On target2.3
usually 1.0usually 1.0
1.5Corners2.8
usually 1.3usually 1.5
QatarQatarSouth KoreaSouth Korea
0.4Goals1.0
4.1Shots7.4
1.4On target2.8
1.6Corners3.2

More chances

South Korea to score83%
3 goals or fewer77%
2 or more goals70%
Goal before half-time66%

Qatar · last 6

Dat Saudi Arabia0–02 shots
Dv UAE1–14 shots
Wv Yemen1–020 shots
Wv Bahrain2–012 shots
Lv Bosnia and Herzegovina1–39 shots
Lat Canada0–62 shots

South Korea · last 6

Wv Uzbekistan2–010 shots
Dv Venezuela0–07 shots
Lv Uruguay1–414 shots
Wv Ecuador3–011 shots
Lv South Africa0–18 shots
Lat Mexico0–19 shots

Head to head

Nov 2020Qatar 1–2 South Korea
Jan 2019South Korea 0–1 Qatar
Jun 2017Qatar 3–2 South Korea
Oct 2016South Korea 3–2 Qatar
Mar 2013South Korea 2–1 Qatar

First half — what we expect

Qatar
24%
to score before half-time
South Korea
55%
to score before half-time

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.

QatarQatarSouth KoreaSouth Korea
28%5+ shots68%
11%7+ shots42%
63%1+ shots on target87%
13%3+ shots on target39%
40%2+ corners71%
<10%4+ corners31%

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

What would change the call

South Korea to win is 65% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:

Qatar lead 1–0 at half-time17%
South Korea lead 1–0 at half-time87%
Goalless at half-time48%

Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.

Build a combination on this match →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

Qatar
Before this
13 NovHAustralia14:45
All fixtures & results →Qatar form →South Korea form →

Common questions

Who will win Qatar vs South Korea?

Bawler's model rates this match: South Korea are favoured (65% win probability vs 12% for Qatar, 23% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Qatar vs South Korea?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Qatar 0-1 South Korea (15.6% probability). Expected total goals: 2.4.

How does Bawler predict Qatar vs South Korea?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Qatar 12%, the draw 23% and South Korea 65%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Qatar vs South Korea?

Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 39% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Qatar expecting 0.63 goals and South Korea 1.80.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Qatar vs South Korea?

Bawler's model expects 2.4 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 44%.