FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Preston North End 1–3 Wolverhampton WanderersMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Preston North End at 24%, draw at 27%, Wolverhampton Wanderers at 49%. The match ended 1-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Wolverhampton Wanderers.
> Pre-match probability vs result
End win
24%
Draw
27%
Wanderers win
49%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.03 – 1.56
Total 2.59
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.4 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost