FT · Europe: Champions League · Tuesday, 20 October 2026
Paris Saint-Germain 4–2 BarcelonaMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 20 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Paris Saint-Germain or draw at 67%. Bawler had Paris Saint-Germain at 44%, the draw at 23% and Barcelona at 33%. The match finished 4–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Paris Saint-Germain win
44%
Result
Draw
23%
Barcelona win
33%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.7
Total 3.7
Actual
4 – 2
Total 6 (+2.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.7 – 2.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 88%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 50%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals carries an 89% forecast as PSG's 2.11 xG and Barcelona's attacking threat—anchored by Lewandowski's 24% team share—create a 0.40 xG advantage that projects a high-scoring encounter."