FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026

PAOK 1–1 SK BrannMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026

PAOK
1–1
Draw
SK Brann
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had PAOK at 48%, draw at 25%, SK Brann at 26%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was PAOK to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
PAOK win
48%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
Brann win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.70 – 1.21
Total 2.90
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.9 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won

> More from Bawler