FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Osasuna 2–0 Racing SantanderMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Osasuna or draw at 77%. Bawler had Osasuna at 54%, the draw at 23% and Racing Santander at 23%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Osasuna win
54%
Result
Draw
23%
Racing Santander win
23%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.3
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.4 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Medium confidence
Osasuna to win
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 38%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.