What we expect
In plain English
Morocco should win this one. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Ghana, and they have won two of the last three between them. The model sees around two goals in it.
What would change the call
Morocco to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Morocco vs Ghana?
Bawler's model rates this match: Morocco are favoured (79% win probability vs 5% for Ghana, 17% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Morocco vs Ghana?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Morocco 2-0 Ghana (19.0% probability). Expected total goals: 2.45.
How does Bawler predict Morocco vs Ghana?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Morocco 79%, the draw 17% and Ghana 5%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Morocco vs Ghana?
BTTS: No (74% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 2.10 and away expected goals 0.35.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Morocco vs Ghana?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.45. The lean is Under 2.5 (likely a tighter affair).