FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Wednesday, 02 September 2026
Millwall 0–3 WrexhamMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 02 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Millwall at 49%, draw at 26%, Wrexham at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-3. The model's headline call was Millwall to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Millwall win
49%
Draw
26%
Wrexham win
25%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.67 – 1.13
Total 2.80
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Away Win
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won