FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Lincoln Red Imps 0–2 LarneMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Lincoln Red Imps or draw at 77%. Bawler had Lincoln Red Imps at 50%, the draw at 27% and Larne at 23%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lincoln Red Imps win
50%
Draw
27%
Larne win
23%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.0
Total 2.5
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.5 against our forecast)
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Lincoln Red Imps or draw
Pre-match: 77%
Missed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.