FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Lincoln Red Imps 0–2 LarneMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Lincoln Red Imps at 50%, draw at 27%, Larne at 23%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was Lincoln Red Imps to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Imps win
50%
Draw
27%
Larne win
23%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.57 – 0.98
Total 2.55
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 77%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost